That's what we're calling this. The Joaquin Weekend. Here's what you need to expect. Footage from the 403rd Wing of the US Air Force Hurricane Hunters, who went up to check out Joaquin from the sky yesterday. The Hurricane It's thankfully pushing east, out toward open water, but it's still a Category 4 storm. Joaquin started its crawl north a little later than anticipated, which is why we are getting this karmic paycheck. The cold front from the north is going to hit it east. Thank you, Cold Front! However, the Bahamas are taking a beating. Crooked Island, Bahamas, experiencing heavy flooding. Footage courtesy of ZNS Bahamas. The fact that we won't get a direct hit does not get us out of harm's way. Along the coast, we're likely to see winds up to 40 miles an hour starting about Saturday night. We'll feel Joaquin on Sunday, but because no one knows how far offshore it will be, meteorologists are hesitant to talk about the wind (the Capital Weather Gang states their Sunday forecast with a low-to-medium confidence level). Cold Front This is what's causing all the rain. And as this front stalls, a jet stream dip is going to dig across the East Coast, while a low pressure system develops south of us. A high pressure system on the eastern edge of Canada will make things windy. Essentially that means that we'll be getting more moisture (rain) and wind. The ground is already saturated from heavy rains the East Coast experienced during the last week of September. Remember this image. This is the amount of rainfall we had during the week of September 23-30. Rain Click for source The heaviest rainfall is expected in the Carolinas, with anywhere from 6 inches to 2 feet in the forecast. Virginia and Maryland are looking at anywhere between two and five inches through Monday. Today (Friday), the rain will only get worse this afternoon, so be careful on your commute home. The bulk of our rain will occur through Saturday morning, when it should let up some, but the wind will not. Since the ground is so heavily saturated, be careful for downed trees. Just to give you an idea of how much moisture that is, it's the equivalent of Washington, DC, getting hit with 24 inches of snow overnight. And we know what kind of shutdown that would entail... Flooding Water levels in Norfolk, VA courtesy Michael Lowry (click for source) River flooding and flash flooding are a huge concern in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Virginia National Guard has already activated over 800 soldiers to be on hand for evacuations and rescues (for reference, New Jersey and New York activated 12,000 during Sandy). At the moment, it looks like the surge we experienced with Isabel is not in the equation, since winds are out of the NNE. But Meteorologist Berk warns us:
Waves may reach over 10 feet high along with tides pushing up the Chesapeake Bay. Basically flooding will occur from rain falling down or water pushing up. So the State Of Emergency for Virginia and Maryland will be relevant. Wind Advisory for gusts over 50 mph on Delmarva. High Surf Advisory for waves over 10 feet. Coastal Flood Warning and Watches along the beaches and Chesapeake Bay. Just a sample of the issues with this storm that will impact our weekend.
You know what that means: if your boat is still at the dock, you're going to want to adjust your dock lines at some point. We'll have another post this afternoon on safety during a storm like this.